Winter Weather Planning in Bus and Motorcoach Operations
Tools and advice for Charter, Transit and Intercity Operations
The US has been hammered recently with winter weather issues, particularly across the Northwest and Midwest Regions. Hundreds of bus schedules have been disrupted.
In a parts of the country where much intercity bus travel passenger traffic skews (very) long distances, disruption can amount passengers becoming stranded mid-route, to buses getting stuck-in-place for hours, or sometimes days on end. Transit, charter, and contract operations do not escape disruption either.
In this piece, I'm going to look at long, short and immediate term planning for busing using weather products from the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States. I'll also offer planning advice for charter, intercity and transit type operations for each time horizon.
You'll need some local research on similar weather products if you're reading from outside the USA, but the planning actions are still very relevant.
At the very end, a reference card is provided to assist by bus operation type.
Let's start with the long range plan:
Longer Term (8-14 Days)
In the long term, you will typically not see advisories, warnings or outlooks as the certainty and impact of weather is unknown. The NWS provides the "8-14 Day U.S. Hazards Outlook", a product to help forecast Hazardous Weather in this period. The links to the outlooks are available at:
On this page, you will select your hazard type (snow, wind, temperature etc.) and will then be taken to the screen (below) showing where that type of hazard is expected:
To this example, a slight risk of heavy snow exists for much of New England, The Great Lakes and the Sierra Nevada in the 8–14-day range. Your actions based on this information will vary depending on your operations type:
Charter
At this stage you're looking at the need to:
Advise customer on potential impacted travel dates - is there scope to move or juggle the itinerary?
Do an early risk assessment for weather-related disruptions - If it happens, what is the plan? The customer may not be willing to change the plan at this point, but the operator should consider the 'what ifs'.
Intercity
For intercity bus, you will want to review actions from similar events in similar geographies if you have that history to hand. You will also want to:
Review connecting and/or feeder services, so you know who up and downstream will be affected.
Prepare for alternate routing, if applicable.
Transit
Transit will require planning and knowledge of the response of local authorities to help formulate your response as the bus operator:
Early engagement with local authorities.
An understanding of their readiness for snow/ice. Is there anything different affecting their readiness this year vs prior events?
Shorter Term (3-7 Days)
As we get closer to forecast events the Day 3-7 US Hazards Outlook map is your friend:
This particular map is quite congested, reflecting the range of expected weather issues across the US in early January 2024. Nevertheless it provides additional information which helps with planning.
Actions to be taken:
Charter
At this point, your customer should be aware of the upcoming conditions.
Engage customers to ensure they are aware of conditions, if they've not already reached out.
Confirm or reschedule travel dates to stay clear of the weather.
Consider taking no new bookings for impacted dates.
Intercity
At this stage you need to be aware of feeds and connections to/from your service(s). A route from LA to NYC may have passengers that will start their trip a day or two before they travel on your impacted segment. Other items to check:
Finalize routing decisions.
Communicate potential delays or cancellations to passengers.
Consider adjusting stops and/or layovers.
Planning for stranded passengers
Transit
At this point, depending on impact, you may consider switching to an off-peak schedule. Harsh weather in the forecast tends to reduce demand as passengers opt to not travel. Include in your planning:
Planning for staffing to cover expected delays, additional maintenance coverage, garage snow removal etc.
Advance communications to customers on schedule changes.
Immediate Term - Next 72 Hours
A variety of weather forecasting products will be important as the expected day of disruption approaches. The 'hourly forecast' can help determine the onset and end time of severe weather. These should be complemented with any advisory, watch or warnings that are issued.
Local forecast offices may also issue additional products such as 'briefings' or a 'weather story' - which is typically a presentation summarizing the expected conditions, timing, severity and expected impacts.
Your starting point for all these is the National Weather Service homepage at:
Form here, you will search for the location of interest, for example, New York City:
You will then see the screen with the forecast for that local area, along with any advisory/watch/warning products (circled) and the link to the hourly forecast beneath (arrow):
The hourly weather forecast can help with predicting the onset of hazardous weather. This could be a guide as to when you will want to work backwards from to ensure you're winding down services and securing assets.
In addition to the hourly forecast, you should review any outlooks, watches and warnings issued. These will give a localized assessment as to the impacts of weather events.
The local impact of a 3-inch snow event in Atlanta, GA will have a much different (i.e. greater) impact than the same event in Buffalo, NY. The warnings and advisories will account for these local differences in impact.
I will provide two examples of warnings here - note the difference in language in each:
This Wisconsin warning suggests difficult travel. In busing, it's a judgement call to run service or not, based on local experience, risk assessment and answering the question "will anyone really be out travelling in this weather?"
A stronger worded Blizzard Warning like this may encourage you to take more decisive action:
This Washington state warning suggests very difficult to impossible travel. Travel should be restricted to emergencies only etc. etc. At this level, preparation to wind down operations should be underway. No question.
By business type, consider the following:
Charter
Be prepared for day-of changes if the charter is not cancelled.
Consider postponement dates and communicate these to customers.
Intercity
If you are operating intercity service and the weather forecast changes or intensifies after you had buses commence longer journeys, you'll need to:
Manage delays/detours/curtailments on the fly.
Constant communication up and down stream to customers and connecting partners.
Have additional assistance on hand to deal with customer queries and potential stranded customers.
Transit
Much like inter-city, you will need to:
Manage delays and detours on the fly.
Provide constant communication - email, social, website, local media, and transit feeds (for google transit etc.).
Stay safe, and be sensible:
I have worked in locations where, for the most genuine of reasons, dispatchers and operations staff try to 'put out as much service as possible', and keep lost miles to a minimum, and of course, many performance metrics and KPIs comprise of minimizing lost miles.
However, as weather forecasting has become more accessible, customers have become more accustomed to learning of the weather in advance and its potential impacts. They've become less inclined to brave the elements and just stay in place:
With bookings on intercity travel, we see advance booking activity collapse when news of an upcoming weather event starts to become headlines in a city.
On transit, snow days are going to be one of the stay-at-home days for hybrid workers.
On charter, groups are likely to call and postpone, particularly if the origin if affected by weather or the destination involves activity where weather would negatively impact that.
For bus companies, securing assets, property and giving your staff the opportunity to prepare will alleviate internal anxiety and reduce exposure. We do not need to be heroes by running empty buses through bad storms and blizzards.
Use these tools and guidance to govern what you should operate, when to make adjustments and above all, keep safety front-of-mind.
Be safe and good luck!
Your Winter Weather Reference Card:
